XWF-WEATHER INDICATIONS: May 30, 2015: Models Hint At An Arabian Sea Cyclone In Early June 2015

The GFS too is now supporting the formation of a low pressure in the Arabian Sea on June 7, 2015. It hints at the possibility of this low intensifying into a tropical cyclone which may hit Oman on June 13, 2015.

Long way to go so one cannot rely much on this forecast now. More over another factor against the low developing is that it's formation is not supported by any ensemble forecasts.

The GFS in its subsequent forecast has ruled out any low developing in the Arabian Sea. But The ECMWF and CMC still persist with their prediction of a low pressure forming on June 4, 2015.

 INDICATIONS May 29, 2015

The ECMWF sustains the Arabian Sea low pressure forecast in it's third successive bulletin. It is expected to form on June 4, 2015. The CMC supports its formation. GFS does not agree. A cyclone is coming if these guys are to be believed. Below is a forecast map of June 7. Heading to Oman or Pakistan?

LATEST UPDATE: MAY 29, 2015

The European model in its latest forecast says the cyclone will form on June 5 and hit Sindh, Pakistan on May 9. The forecast has to sustain for us to be sure. And support by the GFS is necessary.