EXTREME WEATHER FORECAST MAY 2016

MONSOON WILL PUSH IN AROUND MAY 15
May 4, 2016

Below is the GFS forecast for May 15, 2016. It shows the high altitude 150 hPa winds. The easterly jet stream has been pushed up and the monsoon winds are arriving in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UNLIKELY TILL MAY 22

May 4, 2016

The chances of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal till May 22 seems remote. The CFS which had been hinting at a Arabian Sea storm by May end says today in its data that a cyclone is now likely in the Bay of Bengal in mid June. 

This has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Cyclones are inherently unpredictable. And May-June being storm seasons anything can happen anytime.

FORECAST TILL MAY 22

MAY 3, 2016

The next 20 days forecast indicates that

➢Subsequent to the likely rain spell over major parts of India during the first pentad,  heat wave conditions are likely to re-develop over parts of east & central India (viz., Gangetic west Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha and Telangana) during 7th – 11th May.  This is likely to intensify and spread over to cover major parts of central and adjoining peninsular India and northwest India, during the period, 12th – 21st May.

➢Cyclogenesis is un-likely over the north Indian ocean during 2nd – 21st May.

➢However, cross equatorial flow in the lower troposphere is likely to reach south bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 15th May.

➢Likely eastward propagation of  the convective phase of MJO across the Indian ocean may cause a pre-monsoon rainfall peak, with above normal rainfall activity over extreme south peninsula during 12th – 21st May.

➢Western Disturbances are likely to cause above normal precipitation over western Himalayan region during 2nd – 6th May and 12th – 16th May.

CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT AT MONTHS END?

May 2

Is a tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea?

Yes, if the Climate Forecast System, run by an US agency is to believed. 

The CFS though a climate forecast model gives daily updates. And it's data has been suggesting a cyclone forming near the Kerala coast around May 23, 2016 for the last few days.

The tropical cyclone ROANU will be a massive one and it will traverse northward in the Arabian Sea for a week.

At one time it seems it will hit Oman but it will swerve and hit Pakistan on June 1, 2016.

At present it is a mere possibility.

Support from weather models like the GFS and ECMWF is awaited.

Though the GFS in today's forecast data says a low pressure is likely to develop near the Indian Kerala coast on May 18.