The possibility of a Arabian Sea low pressure area developing remains high. Three forecast models predict it. If it does happen heavy rains are likely on Indian west coast, Gujarat, Sindh, coastal Balochistan and even may be Oman by June 12, 2015.
It all started with the European model predicting a low or a cyclone for three consecutive days. But its latest data rules out the possibility.
But other forecast models are predicting a storm in the Arabian Sea now, including the trustworthy GFS.
Both the NAVGEM and Canadian CMC models expect a low area forming on June 4, 2015. They further say rainfall activity on the Indian Malabar coast will increase exponentially as result. Both predict heavy rains in Mumbai and Goa around June 8, 2015.
The GFS goes further and says the "low" will turn into a powerful cyclone that will skirt Gujarat, Pakistani coast and go on to hit Oman on June 12, 2015. Just like cyclone Gonu.
But until the "low" forms on June 4-5, nothing can be said with any certainty. In mid May the GFS had predicted a big cyclone for 4 consecutive days but nothing had happened.
We have wait for a few days.
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