Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone To Form June 6, 2015. Target Northern Oman

It is called Invest 95A by NOAA. It is already a depression, with sustained winds of 50 kph. On late June 6, 2015, Saturday, it will intensify into tropical cyclone Ashobaa.

Presently it lies about 640 kilometers WSW of Lakshdweep. About 900 kilometers north east from Maldives.

In the next 48 hours it will move NNE at a steady clip then it will curve towards Oman.

Latest GFS forecasts say it will make landfall into northern Oman on June 10-11, 2015.

Very heavy rains are expected on the northern coast of Oman. Muscat included. The torrential rains will be accompanied with strong winds. Luckily for Oman the storm is expected to weaken by the time it reaches it.

Ashobaa is going to be a fast moving storm. It will take just four days from its christening on June 6 to reaching Oman on June 10, 2015.

Gujarat or the Pakistan coast will not receive any notable precipitation. Only the most northern coastal strip of Oman will get rainfall.  (On June June 10-11).

Ashobaa will not be a very powerful cyclone. At its peak it will have sustained winds of 120 kph.

Presently amongst the reliable forecast models, only the GFS is supporting the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea. The European model predicts that Invest 95A will not intensify into a cyclone but remain a low pressure area. Or a depression at best. The ECMWF says 95A will move north in the coming days and then dissipate near the Gujarat coast on June 8, 2015.

SATELLITE IMAGE (0300 HRS GMT JUNE 4, 2015) OF INVEST 95A THE DEPRESSION IN THE ARABIAN SEA