INDICATIONS: Arabian Sea Cyclone ASHOBAA (Or A Depression?) Will Form June 6, 2015

It is almost certain that a powerful cyclone is going to form in the Arabian Sea within 72 hours, that is by June 6, 2015.

The tropical cyclone, which will be named ASHOBAA, will start off as an innocuous low pressure area in south east Arabian Sea tomorrow morning (Thursday, June 4, 2015).

This "low" will then move north into east central Arabian Sea and then intensify into cyclone Ashobaa, a few hundred kilometers west of the coast of Karnataka on June 6.

It will start moving north, intensifying all the time. By June 8, it will be whipping sustained winds of 150 kph. Quite a powerful storm.

It is then expected to start curving north-westerly; It will pass the Gujarat coast at Dwarka a few hundred kilometers away on June 8, 2015. It will then weaken slightly.

It will then go close to the Pakistan coast at Sindh-Balochistan border and then move along the coast until it reaches the Pakistan-Iran border area on June 10. It will then start weakening and dissipate in the Gulf Of Oman.

It is too early to be sure as to where the storm will ultimately go. Things will get clearer after the cyclone forms on June 6. Till then the sword hangs on Gujarat in India, Pakistani coastal provinces and Oman. Especially Oman.

Cyclone Ashobaa will not bring any significant rainfall to India but parts of southern Sindh and Balochistan will receive significant precipitation.

Oman is not expected to receive any rainfall.

We cannot be sure of the track of the impending cyclone at this stage. The exact track will become clear by June 6, when the low pressure will turn into a tropical cyclone.

We have based these predictions on the basis of forecast data we received from the GFS Model. The other reliable model the ECMWF predicts too that the "low" will form on June 4. But it predicts in its latest forecast that the system will remain only a depression and not intensify into a tropical cyclone. It also says the depression will dissipate near the coast of Gujarat on June 9, 2015.

The GFS Ensemble Model largely agrees with the European model. It predicts the demise of the system near the Pakistan coast on June 9.

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XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE ASHOBAA PASSES GUJARAT ON JUNE 8, 2015

TOTAL RAINFALL THAT CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL CAUSE TILL JUNE 11, 2015