XWF-INDICATIONS: A depression to form soon in Arabian Sea

Latest GFS forecast says Arabian Sea low will turn into a depression by June 21, 2015.

Let us make one thing at the outset. We do not think a cyclone is possible at this stage of the monsoon. But a depression or deep depression is possible. We are just reporting what the GFS model has said just now.

But since we report any developments here are the details of the forecast....

The Arabian Sea is very turbulent presently. True. The GFS predicts that a group of circulations will coalesce by June 22,2015, into a cyclone or a deep depression, quite near the Oman coast.

It further says the system will potter around in the Arabian Sea for some days, weaken then drift into Kutch-Sindh border area on June 25, 2015.

The European model in it's latest update flatly denies any possibility of a tropical cyclone. It says the Arabian Sea low will stay close to the Saurashtra coast and then enter into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015.

The GFS in its latest forecast issued at 0600 GMT today says the Arabian Sea low will form tomorrow and intensify into a depression by Sunday.