Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa Coming To Northern Oman Thursday, June 11, 2015

Major forecast models barring one predict that Arabian Sea tropical cyclone Ashobaa will make landfall into north-eastern coast of Oman on June 11, 2015.

The point of impact will be the town of Al Ashkharah.

The cyclone is currently moving in a NNW direction, but soon it will move in a north-westerly direction.

It is expected to intensify a little in the coming 24 hours. Wind speeds at the time of impact will be about 125 km/h.

After landfall the storm will move south west into Oman and dissipate completely.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in northeastern Oman in the next three days. Muscat will receive heavy showers on June 11-12, 2015.

Stormy weather will start to affect northeastern Oman from tomorrow itself as the storm comes near.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Fiji, predicts a direct hit on Muscat on June 12, but that seems doubtful.

We have made these forecasts on the basis of what the GFS forecast model issued by NOAA's NCEP (National Climate and Environmental Prediction center) says.

The European forecast model (ECMWF) differs drastically. It predicts the demise of cyclone Ashobaa mid sea in a couple of days.

TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE ASHOBAA BY VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS. THE RED LINE (GFS) IS THE MOST RELIABLE.

TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE ASHOBAA BY JTWC